Bulgaria vs Estonia

29 Sep 2026 · 20:45

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +0.9 pp

Bulgaria

Estonia

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 54.8% DRAW 28.4% AWAY 16.9%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 53.9% 1.79 DRAW 28.4% 3.40 AWAY 17.7% 5.44

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 0.9 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Bulgaria has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Bulgaria Estonia

Shots 8.8 · On target 4.3 Shots 8.0 · On target 2.8

Recent attacking output favours Bulgaria, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Bulgaria Estonia

Shots allowed 8.3 · On target allowed 3.5 Shots allowed 9.8 · On target allowed 4.3

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Bulgaria Estonia

The combined recent performance profile favours Bulgaria.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away strengthening

Bulgaria ↑ +0.26 (+17.0%)

Estonia ↓ -0.75 (-12.1%)

The away price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the away side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.