Azerbaijan vs Liechtenstein

01 Oct 2026 · 18:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +2.8 pp

Azerbaijan

Liechtenstein

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 86.7% DRAW 10.2% AWAY 3.1%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 83.8% 1.16 DRAW 12.1% 8.00 AWAY 4.0% 24.00

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Azerbaijan relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 86.7% win probability, compared with 83.8% implied by the market. The 2.8 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Azerbaijan has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Azerbaijan Liechtenstein

Shots 13.3 · On target 5.0 Shots 3.0 · On target 0.3

Recent attacking output favours Azerbaijan, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Azerbaijan Liechtenstein

Shots allowed 7.8 · On target allowed 3.0 Shots allowed 13.5 · On target allowed 5.0

Azerbaijan has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Azerbaijan Liechtenstein

The combined recent performance profile favours Azerbaijan.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Azerbaijan ↑ +0.16 (+15.5%)

Liechtenstein ↑ +7.00 (+41.2%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.