Denmark vs Wales

27 Sep 2026 · 18:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +3.8 pp

Denmark

Wales

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 73.0% DRAW 16.7% AWAY 10.3%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 69.2% 1.41 DRAW 18.6% 5.25 AWAY 12.2% 8.00

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Denmark relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 73.0% win probability, compared with 69.2% implied by the market. The 3.8 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Denmark has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Denmark Wales

Shots 16.5 · On target 6.5 Shots 14.3 · On target 3.8

Recent attacking output favours Denmark, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Denmark Wales

Shots allowed 8.3 · On target allowed 3.8 Shots allowed 16.3 · On target allowed 5.5

Denmark has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Denmark Wales

The combined recent performance profile favours Denmark.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

Denmark ↓ -0.24 (-14.5%)

Wales ↑ +2.34 (+41.3%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.