Türkiye vs Italy

28 Sep 2026 · 20:45

OPPORTUNITY

CLEAR EDGE HOME +5.6 pp

Türkiye

Italy

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 41.9% DRAW 27.3% AWAY 30.8%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 36.3% 2.68 DRAW 27.7% 3.51 AWAY 36.0% 2.70

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet rates Türkiye clearly higher than the market does.

Our calibrated model estimates a 41.9% win probability, compared with 36.3% implied by the market. The 5.6 percentage-point difference indicates a clear divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Türkiye has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Türkiye Italy

Shots 17.8 · On target 4.3 Shots 8.5 · On target 2.3

Recent attacking output favours Türkiye, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Türkiye Italy

Shots allowed 8.5 · On target allowed 3.3 Shots allowed 13.0 · On target allowed 3.3

Türkiye has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Türkiye Italy

The combined recent performance profile favours Türkiye.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

Türkiye ↓ -0.20 (-6.9%)

Italy ↑ +0.25 (+10.2%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.