Almagro vs Nueva Chicago

27 Sep 2026 · 20:30

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +0.1 pp

Almagro

Nueva Chicago

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 37.4% DRAW 34.9% AWAY 27.8%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 38.4% 2.54 DRAW 33.9% 2.88 AWAY 27.7% 3.52

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 0.1 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Almagro

Recent attacking and defensive numbers do not show a clear overall edge.

Attack Recent attacking output

Almagro Nueva Chicago

Shots 10.5 · On target 3.0 Shots 5.5 · On target 2.3

Recent attacking output favours Almagro, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Almagro Nueva Chicago

Shots allowed 11.0 · On target allowed 5.8 Shots allowed 6.8 · On target allowed 2.3

Nueva Chicago has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Almagro Nueva Chicago

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Almagro ↑ +0.21 (+9.0%)

Nueva Chicago ↓ -0.18 (-4.9%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.