Quilmes vs CA Guemes

26 Sep 2026 · 21:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +1.6 pp

Quilmes

CA Guemes

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 67.2% DRAW 22.2% AWAY 10.6%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 65.6% 1.49 DRAW 22.9% 4.27 AWAY 11.5% 8.50

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 1.6 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Quilmes

The home side shows the stronger recent attacking profile, while the defensive comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Quilmes CA Guemes

Shots 10.3 · On target 4.3 Shots 5.0 · On target 2.0

Recent attacking output favours Quilmes, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Quilmes CA Guemes

Shots allowed 9.0 · On target allowed 4.0 Shots allowed 8.8 · On target allowed 4.8

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Quilmes CA Guemes

The combined recent performance profile favours Quilmes.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away strengthening

Quilmes ↑ +0.02 (+1.3%)

CA Guemes ↓ -1.00 (-10.5%)

The away price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the away side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.