Botafogo SP vs Ponte Preta

30 Sep 2026 · 00:30

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +2.0 pp

Botafogo SP

Ponte Preta

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 81.1% DRAW 12.8% AWAY 6.1%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 79.1% 1.25 DRAW 14.1% 7.00 AWAY 6.7% 14.70

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 2.0 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Ponte Preta

The home side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Botafogo SP Ponte Preta

Shots 10.0 · On target 1.5 Shots 11.3 · On target 2.5

Recent attacking output favours Ponte Preta, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Botafogo SP Ponte Preta

Shots allowed 10.8 · On target allowed 4.0 Shots allowed 20.8 · On target allowed 7.3

Botafogo SP has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Botafogo SP Ponte Preta

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Botafogo SP = (0.0%)

Ponte Preta = (0.0%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.