Gimnasia y Tiro vs Atletico Rafaela

27 Sep 2026 · 23:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +1.4 pp

Gimnasia y Tiro

Atletico Rafaela

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 44.6% DRAW 32.9% AWAY 22.5%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 47.1% 2.02 DRAW 31.7% 3.00 AWAY 21.1% 4.51

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 1.4 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Atletico Rafaela has the stronger recent profile

The away side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Gimnasia y Tiro Atletico Rafaela

Shots 7.5 · On target 3.3 Shots 8.8 · On target 4.3

Recent attacking output favours Atletico Rafaela, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Gimnasia y Tiro Atletico Rafaela

Shots allowed 10.8 · On target allowed 3.3 Shots allowed 6.5 · On target allowed 3.0

Atletico Rafaela has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Gimnasia y Tiro Atletico Rafaela

The combined recent performance profile favours Atletico Rafaela.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away strengthening

Gimnasia y Tiro ↑ +0.06 (+3.0%)

Atletico Rafaela ↓ -0.49 (-9.8%)

The away price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the away side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.