Nautico vs Sport Recife

26 Sep 2026 · 21:30

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +0.9 pp

Nautico

Sport Recife

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 41.2% DRAW 29.4% AWAY 29.4%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 42.2% 2.32 DRAW 29.2% 3.35 AWAY 28.6% 3.43

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 0.9 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Sport Recife has the stronger recent profile

The away side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Nautico Sport Recife

Shots 13.3 · On target 3.0 Shots 15.3 · On target 4.0

Recent attacking output favours Sport Recife, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Nautico Sport Recife

Shots allowed 15.3 · On target allowed 4.8 Shots allowed 14.5 · On target allowed 4.3

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Nautico Sport Recife

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Nautico ↑ +0.22 (+10.5%)

Sport Recife ↑ +0.19 (+5.9%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.