Treaty United FC vs UCD

02 Oct 2026 · 20:45

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE AWAY +2.5 pp

Treaty United FC

UCD

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 30.9% DRAW 21.7% AWAY 47.3%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 32.3% 2.99 DRAW 22.8% 4.24 AWAY 44.8% 2.16

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for UCD relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 47.3% win probability, compared with 44.8% implied by the market. The 2.5 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: UCD

The away side shows the stronger recent attacking profile, while the defensive comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Treaty United FC UCD

Shots 5.3 · On target 2.3 Shots 11.3 · On target 4.8

Recent attacking output favours UCD, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Treaty United FC UCD

Shots allowed 10.0 · On target allowed 4.3 Shots allowed 8.8 · On target allowed 4.5

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Treaty United FC UCD

The combined recent performance profile favours UCD.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home weakening

Treaty United FC ↑ +0.28 (+10.4%)

UCD ↓ -0.06 (-2.7%)

The home price has moved clearly higher, while the away price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.