Portland Hearts of Pine vs Sarasota Paradise

26 Sep 2026 · 23:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +3.5 pp

Portland Hearts of Pine

Sarasota Paradise

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 42.1% DRAW 25.1% AWAY 32.8%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 38.6% 2.40 DRAW 25.8% 3.59 AWAY 35.6% 2.60

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Portland Hearts of Pine relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 42.1% win probability, compared with 38.6% implied by the market. The 3.5 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Portland Hearts of Pine has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Portland Hearts of Pine Sarasota Paradise

Shots 10.3 · On target 4.0 Shots 7.5 · On target 3.5

Recent attacking output favours Portland Hearts of Pine, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Portland Hearts of Pine Sarasota Paradise

Shots allowed 10.8 · On target allowed 4.8 Shots allowed 14.0 · On target allowed 6.0

Portland Hearts of Pine has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Portland Hearts of Pine Sarasota Paradise

The combined recent performance profile favours Portland Hearts of Pine.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away strengthening

Portland Hearts of Pine ↑ +0.47 (+24.4%)

Sarasota Paradise ↓ -0.75 (-22.4%)

The away price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the away side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.