ESPA vs GrIFK Reservi

25 Sep 2026 · 18:15

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +1.4 pp

ESPA

GrIFK Reservi

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 62.9% DRAW 17.7% AWAY 19.4%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 61.5% 1.53 DRAW 19.0% 4.97 AWAY 19.5% 4.84

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 1.4 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: GrIFK Reservi

Recent attacking and defensive numbers do not show a clear overall edge.

Attack Recent attacking output

ESPA GrIFK Reservi

Shots 9.0 · On target 5.0 Shots 10.8 · On target 5.0

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

ESPA GrIFK Reservi

Shots allowed 12.0 · On target allowed 4.5 Shots allowed 13.3 · On target allowed 6.3

ESPA has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

ESPA GrIFK Reservi

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

ESPA ↓ -0.08 (-5.1%)

GrIFK Reservi ↑ +1.24 (+34.4%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.