LePa vs ESPA

03 Oct 2026 · 11:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +0.9 pp

LePa

ESPA

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 19.1% DRAW 20.2% AWAY 60.6%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 19.2% 4.60 DRAW 21.0% 4.20 AWAY 59.7% 1.48

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 0.9 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Defensive Edge: ESPA

The away side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

LePa ESPA

Shots 8.5 · On target 5.5 Shots 9.0 · On target 5.0

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

LePa ESPA

Shots allowed 16.3 · On target allowed 7.0 Shots allowed 12.0 · On target allowed 4.5

ESPA has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

LePa ESPA

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

LePa ↓ -2.15 (-31.9%)

ESPA ↑ +0.18 (+13.8%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.