LoPa vs Poxyt

03 Oct 2026 · 11:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE AWAY +3.6 pp

LoPa

Poxyt

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 37.9% DRAW 19.5% AWAY 42.6%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 40.2% 2.38 DRAW 20.8% 4.60 AWAY 39.0% 2.45

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Poxyt relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 42.6% win probability, compared with 39.0% implied by the market. The 3.6 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Poxyt has the stronger recent profile

The away side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

LoPa Poxyt

Shots 8.5 · On target 3.5 Shots 9.0 · On target 4.3

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

LoPa Poxyt

Shots allowed 14.3 · On target allowed 7.0 Shots allowed 7.5 · On target allowed 3.8

Poxyt has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

LoPa Poxyt

The combined recent performance profile favours Poxyt.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

LoPa ↑ +0.14 (+6.3%)

Poxyt ↑ +0.07 (+3.1%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.