LAUTP vs IPS Edustus

30 Sep 2026 · 18:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +3.9 pp

LAUTP

IPS Edustus

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 39.1% DRAW 19.4% AWAY 41.5%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 35.3% 2.70 DRAW 20.6% 4.64 AWAY 44.2% 2.16

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for LAUTP relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 39.1% win probability, compared with 35.3% implied by the market. The 3.9 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: LAUTP

The home side shows the stronger recent attacking profile, while the defensive comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

LAUTP IPS Edustus

Shots 16.0 · On target 7.0 Shots 11.3 · On target 5.0

Recent attacking output favours LAUTP, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

LAUTP IPS Edustus

Shots allowed 15.3 · On target allowed 6.0 Shots allowed 13.8 · On target allowed 6.5

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

LAUTP IPS Edustus

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home weakening

LAUTP ↑ +0.20 (+8.2%)

IPS Edustus ↑ +0.06 (+2.8%)

The home price has moved clearly higher, while the away price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.