Fortaleza vs Nautico

03 Oct 2026 · 02:35

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +1.4 pp

Fortaleza

Nautico

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 60.3% DRAW 24.0% AWAY 15.7%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 58.9% 1.68 DRAW 24.6% 4.03 AWAY 16.5% 6.00

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 1.4 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Nautico

The home side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Fortaleza Nautico

Shots 11.8 · On target 3.8 Shots 16.0 · On target 3.8

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Fortaleza Nautico

Shots allowed 14.3 · On target allowed 3.5 Shots allowed 21.3 · On target allowed 5.8

Fortaleza has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Fortaleza Nautico

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

Fortaleza ↓ -0.18 (-9.6%)

Nautico ↑ +1.31 (+27.9%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.