Rostov-M2 vs Sevastopol

26 Sep 2026 · 17:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +2.1 pp

Rostov-M2

Sevastopol

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 20.5% DRAW 25.1% AWAY 54.5%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 18.4% 4.92 DRAW 24.5% 3.68 AWAY 57.1% 1.58

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 2.1 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Rostov-M2

The home side shows the stronger recent attacking profile, while the defensive comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Rostov-M2 Sevastopol

Shots 10.8 · On target 5.8 Shots 2.3 · On target 1.5

Recent attacking output favours Rostov-M2, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Rostov-M2 Sevastopol

Shots allowed 8.3 · On target allowed 3.8 Shots allowed 2.3 · On target allowed 0.8

Sevastopol has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Rostov-M2 Sevastopol

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

Rostov-M2 ↓ -0.43 (-8.0%)

Sevastopol ↓ -0.09 (-5.4%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.