Gibraltar vs Andorra

27 Sep 2026 · 18:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +2.8 pp

Gibraltar

Andorra

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 27.8% DRAW 37.9% AWAY 34.3%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 24.9% 3.89 DRAW 35.9% 2.70 AWAY 39.1% 2.48

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Gibraltar relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 27.8% win probability, compared with 24.9% implied by the market. The 2.8 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Gibraltar has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Gibraltar Andorra

Shots 13.3 · On target 6.8 Shots 10.8 · On target 3.5

Recent attacking output favours Gibraltar, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Gibraltar Andorra

Shots allowed 6.5 · On target allowed 2.8 Shots allowed 8.8 · On target allowed 5.3

Gibraltar has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Gibraltar Andorra

The combined recent performance profile favours Gibraltar.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home weakening

Gibraltar ↑ +0.51 (+14.9%)

Andorra ↓ -0.03 (-1.2%)

The home price has moved clearly higher, while the away price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.