Latvia vs Montenegro

02 Oct 2026 · 18:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +1.8 pp

Latvia

Montenegro

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 17.7% DRAW 24.2% AWAY 58.1%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 18.8% 5.14 DRAW 24.8% 3.90 AWAY 56.3% 1.72

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 1.8 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Montenegro has the stronger recent profile

The away side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Latvia Montenegro

Shots 7.8 · On target 1.0 Shots 12.5 · On target 4.0

Recent attacking output favours Montenegro, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Latvia Montenegro

Shots allowed 13.0 · On target allowed 3.5 Shots allowed 10.5 · On target allowed 3.3

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Latvia Montenegro

The combined recent performance profile favours Montenegro.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away strengthening

Latvia ↑ +0.24 (+4.8%)

Montenegro ↓ -0.12 (-6.6%)

The away price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the away side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.