Latvia vs Cyprus

28 Sep 2026 · 18:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +2.1 pp

Latvia

Cyprus

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 38.9% DRAW 30.3% AWAY 30.8%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 36.8% 2.63 DRAW 30.2% 3.20 AWAY 33.0% 2.93

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 2.1 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Defensive Edge: Latvia

The home side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Latvia Cyprus

Shots 12.3 · On target 3.3 Shots 8.0 · On target 3.5

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Latvia Cyprus

Shots allowed 7.8 · On target allowed 2.5 Shots allowed 8.5 · On target allowed 3.5

Latvia has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Latvia Cyprus

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Latvia ↑ +0.09 (+3.5%)

Cyprus ↑ +0.17 (+6.2%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.