Luxembourg vs Iceland

29 Sep 2026 · 20:45

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +1.2 pp

Luxembourg

Iceland

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 31.5% DRAW 29.9% AWAY 38.6%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 30.3% 3.18 DRAW 29.7% 3.25 AWAY 40.0% 2.41

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 1.2 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Luxembourg

Recent attacking and defensive numbers do not show a clear overall edge.

Attack Recent attacking output

Luxembourg Iceland

Shots 12.0 · On target 4.3 Shots 9.5 · On target 2.8

Recent attacking output favours Luxembourg, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Luxembourg Iceland

Shots allowed 14.8 · On target allowed 5.5 Shots allowed 12.0 · On target allowed 5.5

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Luxembourg Iceland

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home weakening

Luxembourg ↑ +0.49 (+18.2%)

Iceland ↑ +0.04 (+1.7%)

The home price has moved clearly higher, while the away price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.