ACF vs KaaPo

18 Sep 2026 · 17:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +1.1 pp

ACF

KaaPo

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 28.6% DRAW 22.7% AWAY 48.8%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 28.8% 3.35 DRAW 23.5% 4.10 AWAY 47.7% 2.02

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 1.1 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: KaaPo

The away side shows the stronger recent attacking profile, while the defensive comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

ACF KaaPo

Shots 6.0 · On target 2.3 Shots 10.0 · On target 5.5

Recent attacking output favours KaaPo, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

ACF KaaPo

Shots allowed 10.3 · On target allowed 5.0 Shots allowed 11.0 · On target allowed 6.0

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

ACF KaaPo

The combined recent performance profile favours KaaPo.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

ACF ↓ -0.27 (-7.5%)

KaaPo ↑ +0.33 (+19.5%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.