HPS II vs MPS/Atletico Malmi

02 Oct 2026 · 19:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +1.8 pp

HPS II

MPS/Atletico Malmi

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 33.0% DRAW 18.7% AWAY 48.3%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 31.2% 3.14 DRAW 19.9% 4.91 AWAY 48.9% 2.00

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 1.8 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Defensive Edge: HPS II

Recent attacking and defensive numbers do not show a clear overall edge.

Attack Recent attacking output

HPS II MPS/Atletico Malmi

Shots 11.3 · On target 4.5 Shots 11.0 · On target 5.3

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

HPS II MPS/Atletico Malmi

Shots allowed 8.8 · On target allowed 3.8 Shots allowed 9.3 · On target allowed 3.8

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

HPS II MPS/Atletico Malmi

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

HPS II ↓ -0.34 (-9.7%)

MPS/Atletico Malmi ↑ +0.30 (+17.6%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.