ToTe vs HPS II

25 Sep 2026 · 19:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +1.4 pp

ToTe

HPS II

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 54.3% DRAW 18.4% AWAY 27.3%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 54.5% 1.75 DRAW 19.6% 4.86 AWAY 25.9% 3.68

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 1.4 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: ToTe

The away side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

ToTe HPS II

Shots 11.8 · On target 5.8 Shots 11.3 · On target 4.5

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

ToTe HPS II

Shots allowed 13.0 · On target allowed 5.8 Shots allowed 8.8 · On target allowed 3.8

HPS II has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

ToTe HPS II

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

ToTe ↑ +0.14 (+8.4%)

HPS II ↑ +0.18 (+5.0%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.