Sao Bernardo SP vs CRB

03 Oct 2026 · 00:30

OPPORTUNITY

STRONG EDGE AWAY +7.8 pp

Sao Bernardo SP

CRB

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 26.2% DRAW 26.5% AWAY 47.3%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 32.9% 3.00 DRAW 27.6% 3.58 AWAY 39.5% 2.50

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet rates CRB substantially higher than the market does.

Our calibrated model estimates a 47.3% win probability, compared with 39.5% implied by the market. The 7.8 percentage-point difference indicates a strong divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

CRB has the stronger recent profile

The away side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Sao Bernardo SP CRB

Shots 10.0 · On target 3.3 Shots 22.8 · On target 7.8

Recent attacking output favours CRB, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Sao Bernardo SP CRB

Shots allowed 18.0 · On target allowed 5.0 Shots allowed 10.3 · On target allowed 3.3

CRB has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Sao Bernardo SP CRB

The combined recent performance profile favours CRB.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Sao Bernardo SP ↑ +0.15 (+6.4%)

CRB ↓ -0.03 (-1.0%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.