EC Juventude vs Operario PR

03 Oct 2026 · 01:45

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +3.8 pp

EC Juventude

Operario PR

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 58.1% DRAW 25.2% AWAY 16.7%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 54.3% 1.80 DRAW 26.4% 3.71 AWAY 19.3% 5.06

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for EC Juventude relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 58.1% win probability, compared with 54.3% implied by the market. The 3.8 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

EC Juventude has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

EC Juventude Operario PR

Shots 13.0 · On target 3.8 Shots 10.5 · On target 3.8

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

EC Juventude Operario PR

Shots allowed 10.3 · On target allowed 3.3 Shots allowed 19.5 · On target allowed 5.0

EC Juventude has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

EC Juventude Operario PR

The combined recent performance profile favours EC Juventude.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away weakening

EC Juventude ↑ +0.05 (+2.9%)

Operario PR ↑ +0.45 (+9.4%)

The away price has moved clearly higher, while the home price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.