AC Milan vs Lecce

20 Sep 2026 · 20:45

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +3.2 pp

AC Milan

Lecce

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 80.3% DRAW 13.5% AWAY 6.2%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 77.0% 1.25 DRAW 15.4% 6.25 AWAY 7.5% 12.81

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for AC Milan relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 80.3% win probability, compared with 77.0% implied by the market. The 3.2 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

AC Milan has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

AC Milan Lecce

Shots 13.3 · On target 4.3 Shots 9.0 · On target 3.5

Recent attacking output favours AC Milan, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

AC Milan Lecce

Shots allowed 10.8 · On target allowed 4.3 Shots allowed 18.3 · On target allowed 8.8

AC Milan has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

AC Milan Lecce

The combined recent performance profile favours AC Milan.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away weakening

AC Milan ↓ -0.02 (-1.6%)

Lecce ↑ +1.10 (+9.6%)

The away price has moved clearly higher, while the home price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.