Toluca vs Santos Laguna

21 Sep 2026 · 02:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +1.1 pp

Toluca

Santos Laguna

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 77.9% DRAW 12.7% AWAY 9.4%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 76.8% 1.25 DRAW 13.8% 6.95 AWAY 9.4% 10.23

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 1.1 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Santos Laguna

The home side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Toluca Santos Laguna

Shots 11.5 · On target 3.8 Shots 13.8 · On target 4.0

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Toluca Santos Laguna

Shots allowed 11.0 · On target allowed 2.3 Shots allowed 13.8 · On target allowed 4.5

Toluca has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Toluca Santos Laguna

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Toluca ↓ -0.03 (-2.3%)

Santos Laguna ↑ +0.73 (+7.7%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.