Necaxa vs Club America

28 Sep 2026 · 05:10

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE AWAY +3.6 pp

Necaxa

Club America

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 23.0% DRAW 25.5% AWAY 51.5%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 25.7% 3.80 DRAW 26.4% 3.71 AWAY 47.9% 2.04

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Club America relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 51.5% win probability, compared with 47.9% implied by the market. The 3.6 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Club America has the stronger recent profile

The away side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Necaxa Club America

Shots 12.3 · On target 3.3 Shots 19.0 · On target 5.8

Recent attacking output favours Club America, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Necaxa Club America

Shots allowed 16.5 · On target allowed 5.8 Shots allowed 11.0 · On target allowed 5.5

Club America has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Necaxa Club America

The combined recent performance profile favours Club America.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

Necaxa ↓ -0.20 (-5.1%)

Club America ↑ +0.15 (+7.9%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.