Leon vs Juarez FC

28 Sep 2026 · 03:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +3.6 pp

Leon

Juarez FC

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 64.7% DRAW 21.3% AWAY 14.0%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 61.2% 1.58 DRAW 22.8% 4.24 AWAY 16.1% 6.00

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Leon relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 64.7% win probability, compared with 61.2% implied by the market. The 3.6 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Leon has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Leon Juarez FC

Shots 13.8 · On target 5.5 Shots 11.0 · On target 3.5

Recent attacking output favours Leon, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Leon Juarez FC

Shots allowed 14.8 · On target allowed 3.8 Shots allowed 19.0 · On target allowed 6.8

Leon has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Leon Juarez FC

The combined recent performance profile favours Leon.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

Leon ↓ -0.09 (-5.4%)

Juarez FC ↑ +0.71 (+13.4%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.