Unam Pumas vs Atletico San Luis

27 Sep 2026 · 20:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +2.7 pp

Unam Pumas

Atletico San Luis

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 51.0% DRAW 25.4% AWAY 23.5%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 48.4% 2.05 DRAW 26.2% 3.78 AWAY 25.4% 3.90

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Unam Pumas relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 51.0% win probability, compared with 48.4% implied by the market. The 2.7 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Unam Pumas has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Unam Pumas Atletico San Luis

Shots 12.0 · On target 4.0 Shots 11.0 · On target 3.8

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Unam Pumas Atletico San Luis

Shots allowed 13.0 · On target allowed 3.8 Shots allowed 16.5 · On target allowed 5.8

Unam Pumas has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Unam Pumas Atletico San Luis

The combined recent performance profile favours Unam Pumas.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Unam Pumas ↑ +0.07 (+3.5%)

Atletico San Luis ↑ +0.20 (+5.4%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.