Tigres UANL vs Puebla

27 Sep 2026 · 05:10

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +0.9 pp

Tigres UANL

Puebla

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 59.8% DRAW 22.0% AWAY 18.2%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 60.3% 1.61 DRAW 22.3% 4.35 AWAY 17.3% 5.60

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 0.9 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Puebla has the stronger recent profile

The away side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Tigres UANL Puebla

Shots 13.3 · On target 4.0 Shots 15.0 · On target 4.0

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Tigres UANL Puebla

Shots allowed 16.8 · On target allowed 4.3 Shots allowed 15.5 · On target allowed 4.3

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Tigres UANL Puebla

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Tigres UANL ↑ +0.05 (+3.4%)

Puebla ↑ +0.10 (+1.8%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.