Queretaro vs Leon

21 Sep 2026 · 04:05

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +1.1 pp

Queretaro

Leon

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 34.6% DRAW 27.4% AWAY 38.0%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 35.4% 2.76 DRAW 27.7% 3.53 AWAY 36.9% 2.65

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 1.1 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Leon has the stronger recent profile

The away side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Queretaro Leon

Shots 11.3 · On target 3.8 Shots 13.3 · On target 4.3

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Queretaro Leon

Shots allowed 17.5 · On target allowed 3.5 Shots allowed 14.5 · On target allowed 3.3

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Queretaro Leon

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away strengthening

Queretaro ↑ +0.29 (+11.7%)

Leon ↓ -0.25 (-8.6%)

The away price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the away side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.