Marseille vs PSG

20 Sep 2026 · 20:45

OPPORTUNITY

CLEAR EDGE AWAY +5.2 pp

Marseille

PSG

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 11.5% DRAW 16.2% AWAY 72.3%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 14.5% 6.77 DRAW 18.5% 5.30 AWAY 67.1% 1.46

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet rates PSG clearly higher than the market does.

Our calibrated model estimates a 72.3% win probability, compared with 67.1% implied by the market. The 5.2 percentage-point difference indicates a clear divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

PSG has the stronger recent profile

The away side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Marseille PSG

Shots 13.5 · On target 3.8 Shots 22.8 · On target 8.8

Recent attacking output favours PSG, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Marseille PSG

Shots allowed 16.8 · On target allowed 6.5 Shots allowed 9.5 · On target allowed 3.8

PSG has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Marseille PSG

The combined recent performance profile favours PSG.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Marseille ↓ -0.02 (-0.3%)

PSG ↓ -0.01 (-0.4%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.