Helmond Sport vs Heracles

02 Oct 2026 · 21:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE AWAY +3.7 pp

Helmond Sport

Heracles

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 13.4% DRAW 17.7% AWAY 68.9%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 15.4% 6.25 DRAW 19.4% 4.98 AWAY 65.2% 1.48

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Heracles relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 68.9% win probability, compared with 65.2% implied by the market. The 3.7 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Heracles has the stronger recent profile

The away side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Helmond Sport Heracles

Shots 14.8 · On target 4.5 Shots 20.3 · On target 6.8

Recent attacking output favours Heracles, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Helmond Sport Heracles

Shots allowed 14.8 · On target allowed 5.5 Shots allowed 7.8 · On target allowed 2.5

Heracles has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Helmond Sport Heracles

The combined recent performance profile favours Heracles.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Helmond Sport ↑ +0.09 (+1.5%)

Heracles ↑ +0.05 (+3.2%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.