Maastricht vs Helmond Sport

26 Sep 2026 · 20:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +1.9 pp

Maastricht

Helmond Sport

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 42.3% DRAW 26.6% AWAY 31.2%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 43.9% 2.20 DRAW 26.8% 3.61 AWAY 29.3% 3.30

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 1.9 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Helmond Sport

The away side shows the stronger recent attacking profile, while the defensive comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Maastricht Helmond Sport

Shots 6.8 · On target 2.0 Shots 14.3 · On target 4.3

Recent attacking output favours Helmond Sport, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Maastricht Helmond Sport

Shots allowed 12.8 · On target allowed 6.3 Shots allowed 14.8 · On target allowed 6.8

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Maastricht Helmond Sport

The combined recent performance profile favours Helmond Sport.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away strengthening

Maastricht ↑ +0.29 (+15.2%)

Helmond Sport ↓ -0.22 (-6.3%)

The away price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the away side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.