Oita vs Montedio Yamagata

03 Oct 2026 · 10:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +2.2 pp

Oita

Montedio Yamagata

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 38.4% DRAW 27.5% AWAY 34.1%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 36.2% 2.68 DRAW 27.8% 3.50 AWAY 36.1% 2.69

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 2.2 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Montedio Yamagata

The home side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Oita Montedio Yamagata

Shots 5.5 · On target 2.3 Shots 10.8 · On target 3.5

Recent attacking output favours Montedio Yamagata, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Oita Montedio Yamagata

Shots allowed 7.3 · On target allowed 3.3 Shots allowed 16.0 · On target allowed 5.5

Oita has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Oita Montedio Yamagata

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Oita ↓ -0.11 (-3.9%)

Montedio Yamagata ↑ +0.16 (+6.3%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.