Albirex Niigata vs Tokushima Vortis

03 Oct 2026 · 07:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +0.5 pp

Albirex Niigata

Tokushima Vortis

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 38.3% DRAW 28.4% AWAY 33.3%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 37.7% 2.58 DRAW 28.6% 3.41 AWAY 33.7% 2.89

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 0.5 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Tokushima Vortis

The away side shows the stronger recent attacking profile, while the defensive comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Albirex Niigata Tokushima Vortis

Shots 8.0 · On target 3.0 Shots 11.8 · On target 5.0

Recent attacking output favours Tokushima Vortis, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Albirex Niigata Tokushima Vortis

Shots allowed 11.3 · On target allowed 4.0 Shots allowed 14.5 · On target allowed 6.0

Albirex Niigata has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Albirex Niigata Tokushima Vortis

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Albirex Niigata ↑ +0.01 (+0.4%)

Tokushima Vortis ↑ +0.08 (+2.8%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.