Matsumoto Y FC vs Gainare Tottori

03 Oct 2026 · 07:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +0.3 pp

Matsumoto Y FC

Gainare Tottori

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 59.9% DRAW 21.8% AWAY 18.3%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 59.6% 1.64 DRAW 22.4% 4.36 AWAY 17.9% 5.45

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 0.3 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Gainare Tottori

The away side shows the stronger recent attacking profile, while the defensive comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Matsumoto Y FC Gainare Tottori

Shots 8.3 · On target 2.8 Shots 12.3 · On target 6.0

Recent attacking output favours Gainare Tottori, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Matsumoto Y FC Gainare Tottori

Shots allowed 10.5 · On target allowed 3.3 Shots allowed 14.3 · On target allowed 6.5

Matsumoto Y FC has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Matsumoto Y FC Gainare Tottori

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

Matsumoto Y FC ↓ -0.09 (-5.0%)

Gainare Tottori ↑ +1.45 (+36.3%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.