Gremio Anapolis vs Bom Jesus

24 Sep 2026 · 00:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +1.2 pp

Gremio Anapolis

Bom Jesus

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 20.2% DRAW 29.9% AWAY 49.9%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 19.0% 4.94 DRAW 28.9% 3.25 AWAY 52.1% 1.80

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 1.2 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Gremio Anapolis

The home side shows the stronger recent attacking profile, while the defensive comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Gremio Anapolis Bom Jesus

Shots 14.8 · On target 6.5 Shots 10.5 · On target 4.5

Recent attacking output favours Gremio Anapolis, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Gremio Anapolis Bom Jesus

Shots allowed 14.8 · On target allowed 4.8 Shots allowed 10.8 · On target allowed 3.8

Bom Jesus has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Gremio Anapolis Bom Jesus

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Gremio Anapolis ↑ +0.12 (+2.8%)

Bom Jesus ↑ +0.04 (+2.3%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.