Bom Jesus vs Goiania

20 Sep 2026 · 20:30

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +1.1 pp

Bom Jesus

Goiania

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 39.2% DRAW 30.7% AWAY 30.1%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 38.1% 2.40 DRAW 30.5% 3.00 AWAY 31.4% 2.92

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 1.1 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Bom Jesus

The home side shows the stronger recent attacking profile, while the defensive comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Bom Jesus Goiania

Shots 12.8 · On target 4.8 Shots 10.3 · On target 3.5

Recent attacking output favours Bom Jesus, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Bom Jesus Goiania

Shots allowed 12.0 · On target allowed 3.3 Shots allowed 11.0 · On target allowed 3.0

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Bom Jesus Goiania

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away strengthening

Bom Jesus ↑ +0.55 (+29.7%)

Goiania ↓ -1.60 (-35.4%)

The away price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the away side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.