Fardu Ferghana vs BuxDu

22 Sep 2026 · 13:00

OPPORTUNITY

CLEAR EDGE HOME +4.0 pp

Fardu Ferghana

BuxDu

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 80.5% DRAW 13.8% AWAY 5.6%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 76.5% 1.22 DRAW 16.1% 5.80 AWAY 7.4% 12.70

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet rates Fardu Ferghana clearly higher than the market does.

Our calibrated model estimates a 80.5% win probability, compared with 76.5% implied by the market. The 4.0 percentage-point difference indicates a clear divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Fardu Ferghana has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Fardu Ferghana BuxDu

Shots 10.0 · On target 6.0 Shots 5.3 · On target 2.5

Recent attacking output favours Fardu Ferghana, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Fardu Ferghana BuxDu

Shots allowed 7.5 · On target allowed 3.3 Shots allowed 15.5 · On target allowed 8.5

Fardu Ferghana has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Fardu Ferghana BuxDu

The combined recent performance profile favours Fardu Ferghana.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away weakening

Fardu Ferghana ↓ -0.02 (-1.5%)

BuxDu ↑ +3.95 (+45.1%)

The away price has moved clearly higher, while the home price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.