FK Garliava vs DFK Dainava

02 Oct 2026 · 18:30

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +2.6 pp

FK Garliava

DFK Dainava

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 29.3% DRAW 22.9% AWAY 47.8%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 26.7% 3.61 DRAW 23.3% 4.14 AWAY 49.9% 1.93

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for FK Garliava relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 29.3% win probability, compared with 26.7% implied by the market. The 2.6 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: DFK Dainava

The home side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

FK Garliava DFK Dainava

Shots 8.5 · On target 3.3 Shots 11.0 · On target 5.0

Recent attacking output favours DFK Dainava, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

FK Garliava DFK Dainava

Shots allowed 11.3 · On target allowed 6.5 Shots allowed 17.3 · On target allowed 8.5

FK Garliava has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

FK Garliava DFK Dainava

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away strengthening

FK Garliava ↑ +0.98 (+37.1%)

DFK Dainava ↓ -0.40 (-17.2%)

The away price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the away side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.