Bnei Yehuda Tel Aviv vs Maccabi Kiryat Gat

01 Oct 2026 · 18:00

OPPORTUNITY

CLEAR EDGE HOME +4.0 pp

Bnei Yehuda Tel Aviv

Maccabi Kiryat Gat

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 77.3% DRAW 14.0% AWAY 8.7%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 73.3% 1.30 DRAW 16.1% 5.92 AWAY 10.6% 9.00

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet rates Bnei Yehuda Tel Aviv clearly higher than the market does.

Our calibrated model estimates a 77.3% win probability, compared with 73.3% implied by the market. The 4.0 percentage-point difference indicates a clear divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Bnei Yehuda Tel Aviv has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Bnei Yehuda Tel Aviv Maccabi Kiryat Gat

Shots 14.8 · On target 8.0 Shots 10.3 · On target 2.8

Recent attacking output favours Bnei Yehuda Tel Aviv, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Bnei Yehuda Tel Aviv Maccabi Kiryat Gat

Shots allowed 9.5 · On target allowed 4.3 Shots allowed 14.0 · On target allowed 6.0

Bnei Yehuda Tel Aviv has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Bnei Yehuda Tel Aviv Maccabi Kiryat Gat

The combined recent performance profile favours Bnei Yehuda Tel Aviv.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

Bnei Yehuda Tel Aviv ↓ -0.12 (-8.2%)

Maccabi Kiryat Gat ↑ +3.50 (+63.6%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.