MS Ashdod vs Maccabi Herzliya

01 Oct 2026 · 18:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +4.0 pp

MS Ashdod

Maccabi Herzliya

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 66.3% DRAW 18.7% AWAY 15.0%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 62.3% 1.53 DRAW 20.5% 4.65 AWAY 17.2% 5.55

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for MS Ashdod relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 66.3% win probability, compared with 62.3% implied by the market. The 4.0 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

MS Ashdod has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

MS Ashdod Maccabi Herzliya

Shots 14.3 · On target 7.3 Shots 11.3 · On target 6.3

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

MS Ashdod Maccabi Herzliya

Shots allowed 6.0 · On target allowed 2.3 Shots allowed 12.0 · On target allowed 4.5

MS Ashdod has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

MS Ashdod Maccabi Herzliya

The combined recent performance profile favours MS Ashdod.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

MS Ashdod ↓ -0.08 (-5.0%)

Maccabi Herzliya ↑ +1.35 (+32.1%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.