Hapoel Rishon Lezion vs Maccabi Achi Nazareth

24 Sep 2026 · 18:00

OPPORTUNITY

CLEAR EDGE HOME +4.2 pp

Hapoel Rishon Lezion

Maccabi Achi Nazareth

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 56.6% DRAW 23.7% AWAY 19.7%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 52.4% 1.77 DRAW 25.0% 3.70 AWAY 22.6% 4.10

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet rates Hapoel Rishon Lezion clearly higher than the market does.

Our calibrated model estimates a 56.6% win probability, compared with 52.4% implied by the market. The 4.2 percentage-point difference indicates a clear divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Maccabi Achi Nazareth

The home side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Hapoel Rishon Lezion Maccabi Achi Nazareth

Shots 11.5 · On target 6.3 Shots 13.5 · On target 7.0

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Hapoel Rishon Lezion Maccabi Achi Nazareth

Shots allowed 7.5 · On target allowed 3.3 Shots allowed 17.0 · On target allowed 8.5

Hapoel Rishon Lezion has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Hapoel Rishon Lezion Maccabi Achi Nazareth

The combined recent performance profile favours Hapoel Rishon Lezion.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away strengthening

Hapoel Rishon Lezion ↑ +0.14 (+8.5%)

Maccabi Achi Nazareth ↓ -0.40 (-8.9%)

The away price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the away side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.