Fortaleza CEIF vs Deportes Tolima

28 Sep 2026 · 01:05

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE AWAY +3.8 pp

Fortaleza CEIF

Deportes Tolima

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 23.5% DRAW 30.0% AWAY 46.5%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 26.9% 3.60 DRAW 30.3% 3.20 AWAY 42.7% 2.27

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Deportes Tolima relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 46.5% win probability, compared with 42.7% implied by the market. The 3.8 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Deportes Tolima has the stronger recent profile

The away side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Fortaleza CEIF Deportes Tolima

Shots 10.3 · On target 3.0 Shots 16.5 · On target 5.3

Recent attacking output favours Deportes Tolima, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Fortaleza CEIF Deportes Tolima

Shots allowed 16.0 · On target allowed 6.5 Shots allowed 11.3 · On target allowed 3.8

Deportes Tolima has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Fortaleza CEIF Deportes Tolima

The combined recent performance profile favours Deportes Tolima.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Fortaleza CEIF ↑ +0.20 (+6.3%)

Deportes Tolima ↓ -0.05 (-2.1%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.