Deportes Tolima vs America de Cali

21 Sep 2026 · 01:10

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +1.7 pp

Deportes Tolima

America de Cali

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 34.7% DRAW 30.5% AWAY 34.9%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 36.6% 2.64 DRAW 30.2% 3.20 AWAY 33.1% 2.92

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 1.7 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

America de Cali has the stronger recent profile

The away side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Deportes Tolima America de Cali

Shots 14.8 · On target 4.8 Shots 16.0 · On target 7.5

Recent attacking output favours America de Cali, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Deportes Tolima America de Cali

Shots allowed 11.3 · On target allowed 3.5 Shots allowed 7.8 · On target allowed 3.3

America de Cali has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Deportes Tolima America de Cali

The combined recent performance profile favours America de Cali.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

Deportes Tolima ↓ -0.13 (-5.2%)

America de Cali ↑ +0.41 (+14.6%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.