Atletico Nacional Medellin vs Junior

01 Oct 2026 · 03:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +1.0 pp

Atletico Nacional Medellin

Junior

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 66.7% DRAW 19.6% AWAY 13.7%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 67.5% 1.46 DRAW 19.8% 4.98 AWAY 12.7% 7.77

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 1.0 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Junior

Recent attacking and defensive numbers do not show a clear overall edge.

Attack Recent attacking output

Atletico Nacional Medellin Junior

Shots 13.5 · On target 5.5 Shots 16.5 · On target 7.3

Recent attacking output favours Junior, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Atletico Nacional Medellin Junior

Shots allowed 6.3 · On target allowed 4.5 Shots allowed 9.3 · On target allowed 3.5

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Atletico Nacional Medellin Junior

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away weakening

Atletico Nacional Medellin ↑ +0.00 (+0.1%)

Junior ↑ +1.27 (+19.5%)

The away price has moved clearly higher, while the home price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.