Urawa Red Diamonds (W) vs AC Nagano Parceiro (W)

23 Sep 2026 · 09:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +2.7 pp

Urawa Red Diamonds (W)

AC Nagano Parceiro (W)

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 73.4% DRAW 16.8% AWAY 9.8%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 70.6% 1.30 DRAW 18.4% 5.00 AWAY 11.0% 8.35

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Urawa Red Diamonds (W) relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 73.4% win probability, compared with 70.6% implied by the market. The 2.7 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Defensive Edge: Urawa Red Diamonds (W)

The home side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Urawa Red Diamonds (W) AC Nagano Parceiro (W)

Shots 12.5 · On target 5.0 Shots 11.8 · On target 5.8

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Urawa Red Diamonds (W) AC Nagano Parceiro (W)

Shots allowed 6.0 · On target allowed 4.0 Shots allowed 14.8 · On target allowed 6.8

Urawa Red Diamonds (W) has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Urawa Red Diamonds (W) AC Nagano Parceiro (W)

The combined recent performance profile favours Urawa Red Diamonds (W).

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away strengthening

Urawa Red Diamonds (W) ↑ +0.13 (+11.5%)

AC Nagano Parceiro (W) ↓ -2.65 (-24.1%)

The away price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the away side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.